Why Facts Matter

Lies and Lying Liars. Episode 2.

Who believes what and why?

Many Russians believe a “special military action” into Ukraine was necessary because NATO-backed neo-Nazis in Ukraine’s government were threatening the genocide of ethnic Russians in two eastern provinces.

Many Americans believe that the Russians invaded Ukraine because Joe Biden is a weak president who is unable to stand up to Putin.

What are the empirical, provable facts?

• What is the evidence that Ukraine’s government consists of neo-Nazis who are colluding with NATO to threaten Putin’s Russia?

There isn’t any. I looked. I couldn’t find any record of written or verbal threats, no photographs of a military build-up surrounding Russia, no Ukrainian saboteurs, no surveillance of Russia by Ukraine spy planes (because they don’t have any). No ultimatums coming from NATO. The facts are: by early 2021, anti-corruption investigations by Zelensky’s government ensnared two pro-Russian oligarchs, including Putin’s close friend Viktor Medvedchuk. This was part of the reform efforts by Ukraine’s democratically elected government. This real-life example of political housecleaning—in Putin’s backyard—demonstrates the advantage of democracy over autocracy. Russians might think if the Ukrainians can do it, why not us? That’s the real threat to Putin.

• What evidence shows that President Biden is a naive and weak politician who is at Putin’s mercy?

There is a lot of talk but there isn’t any evidence. Let’s examine the facts: what concrete actions did Biden’s administration take to counter Putin’s increasingly aggressive moves?

• According to the Military Times, eight months before the Ukraine crisis, Biden rallied NATO support in anticipation of a confrontation with Putin.

• In October of 2021, Biden’s team started developing a set of options for increasingly severe sanctions that could be implemented to counter offensive moves by the Russians.

• Starting in November of 2021, Biden’s administration began de-classifying military intelligence and publicizing Russian preparations for the invasion—previewing offensive actions before they occurred.

• As soon as Russia’s attack on Ukraine started, the US and NATO partners began to implement progressively tighter economic sanctions on Russia.

From the sources cited in the above-bulleted list, we may conclude:

1) Rather than ignore a gathering storm, President Biden quickly moved to restore confidence in NATO by consulting with the thirty member states. In the first year of his presidency, Biden coordinated with the allies to develop a unified and comprehensive plan to deter or contain possible Russian aggression. 2) Under US leadership, economic and diplomatic experts from NATO countries developed a list of increasingly stringent sanctions to deploy at each stage of Russia’s offensive operations in Ukraine. 3) Domestically, the Biden administration coordinated multi-agency processes to assess military intelligence, de-classify the intel so it can be made public, and then strategically release information about Russia’s invasion plans.

These actions were also calibrated to account for possible counter-measures by the Russians. Any direct confrontation between the highly nuclear-armed USA and Russia carries existential dangers. Every move planned by President Biden and his team took this consequence into account. The balancing of objectives and costs, the awareness of needing to work collaboratively with allies, and the ability to utilize different streams of expertise in policy development show the competence and confidence of the Biden administration.

So why do so many Americans feel that Biden has been “weak” on these issues? Because political discussions in the United States are not grounded in known facts. Our understanding of what is occurring in the world is filtered through media frames and channels. Public perception of Biden’s “weakness” and “incompetence” is a result of consistent messaging through the Republican Party’s well-developed communications infrastructure.

The Party has adopted a weak/strong framing to always contrast Biden and Trump. Every action President Biden takes is coded as WEAK in contrast to former President Trump, whose positions are coded as STRONG. It doesn’t matter what the issue is. It doesn’t matter what the facts are. What matters is consistency and repetition. All Republican electeds are expected to use this framing when discussing Biden policies. Any elaboration of the frame is first tested out in right-wing media and then adopted by party operatives. If there aren’t enough facts to fill out the picture in the frame, some will be invented and others will be selected from a different context to insert incongruously in the frame. In the event that a Republican political operative faces tough questioning about the Party’s position, they will reiterate talking points taken from disparate elements in the frame. What they say doesn’t make sense. Because there is no logical connection between the statements that are assembled to promote the STRONG Trump and WEAK Biden message. There’s no timeline of events, no context, no exploration of cause-effect or cost-benefit. The talking points don’t have to hang together because logic is not required. There is no attempt to persuade. The point is to reinforce the framing and let it seep into the public’s subconscious.

Here’s what happens when you try to pin down what Republicans mean when they accuse Biden of “weakness.” Paul Waldman in the Washington Post:

Though some Republicans say the sanctions at the center of Biden’s strategy should have started earlier, you’ll have a hard time finding one who can specify in any detail what Biden’s “weakness” toward Russia has consisted of to this point, nor what a “strong” president would be doing instead. Mounting a ground invasion to take Moscow? Launching nuclear weapons? What?

In Friday’s newsletter, I’ll examine the dissemination of Russian propaganda through its official state outlets and show how American right-wing messaging infiltrates and shapes American media discourse.

If you missed Episode 1, it’s here.

Keep scrolling down (below Notes) to reach the comments, share, and like buttons.

Notes:

Abigail Adams, Just Total Fiction: How Putin is Using Nazi Propaganda to Defend Ukraine Invasion.

Julian Barnes and David Sanger, Accurate US intelligence did not stop Putin but it gave Biden big advantages.

Madeline Fitzgerald, A Timeline of the Russia-Ukraine Conflict.

A. Madhani, J. Lemire, & L. Cook, Biden rallies NATO support ahead of confrontation with Putin

Phil Mattingly, Inside the months of work that allowed the US and its allies to turn Russia into a financial pariah overnight.

A. R. Sorkin, J. Karaian, S. Kessler, M. de la Merced, L. Hirsch, Sanctions and Consequences.

Paul Waldman, Republicans say Biden is ‘weak’ on Ukraine. What would they do differently?

Benjamin Wallace-Wells, The Ukraine transparency initiative.