We interrupt this regularly scheduled program . . .

(Updated: 1:15pm, 2/25/22)

When I was living in the Polish People’s Republic (Polska Rzeczpospolita Ludowa), I heard this old chestnut of a Polish joke:

Q. If Poland is invaded by Germany and Russia simultaneously, whom should we fight first?

A. Germany. Business before pleasure.

Let’s just say that Central Europeans have had good reasons to be wary of their “neighbor to the East” for quite some time.

Today’s newsletter was supposed to examine the problems of positive thinking. That topic was kicked out of the rotation by the invasion of Ukraine. Thanks to the imperialist ambitions of KGB Lt. Col. (ret.) Vladimir Putin, the world is facing the most serious geopolitical threat since 1939. We need to think about what this means and how we should act.

As I write this, the Russian military is bombing population centers, knocking out communication systems, and moving its ground forces in a pincer formation towards the Ukrainian capital of Kyiv. Political analysts believe that the initial goal of Putin’s invasion is “regime change.” This could involve assassinations or imprisonment of the democratically elected Ukrainian government officials. Removal of the Ukrainian government would be followed by the installation of Russian proxies in positions of power. Millions of people are on the move with their children and elderly relatives, fleeing westward.

On the ground in Ukraine, conditions are changing rapidly but the general plan has has been fairly obvious to American experts for several months. I don’t have a comprehensive understanding but I’m following journalists and area specialists whom I trust. A big picture is developing that will be affecting our lives for at least the next decade.

I don’t have an informed commentary at this time. So here is some information for you, dear readers, which I provide with a few notes. Feel free to add your perspective in the comments.

News Feed

New York Times, Live Updates

Washington Post, Live Updates

The Guardian, Live Updates

Al Jazeera, Live Updates

History of Ukrainian national identity

Anne Applebaum, Ukraine is now Democracy’s Front Line. Explains the emergence of Ukrainian national identity from the mid-19th century to present. Considers how this was originally an agrarian identity that distinguished the Ukrainian peasantry from the Russian and Polish nobility.

Putin’s ambition as a threat to democracy

Yascha Mounk, Dictators aren’t pretending anymore. Democratic backsliding has opened the door to authoritarianism and has destabilized the post-Cold War order.

Heather Cox Richardson, Letters from an American, February 23, 2022

Today’s invasion of democratic Ukraine by authoritarian Putin is important. It not only has broken a long period of peace in Europe, it has brought into the open that authoritarians are indeed trying to destroy democracy.

Marcy Wheeler, How not to lose a world war between authoritarianism and democracy How to thread the political needle by strategically framing the sanctions and communicating with the public effectively.

Xi’s and Putin’s irredentist ambitions

Michael Schuman, Is Taiwan Next? As a world power in ascendence, China is a bigger threat to the liberal order than is Russia. Russia’s invasion of Ukraine may be the last bold move of a waning power —but one that provides a model for China’s ambition in Asia.

Adam Taylor, The Fallacy that Links Putin’s Attack on Ukraine with Xi’s ambitions on Taiwan

There is one concept that unites Putin on Ukraine and Xi on Taiwan, however: The idea that history and geography can trump self-determination and democracy, no matter what.

Evan Osnos, What is China learning from Russia’s invasion of Ukraine? It is an uneasy alliance: on the one hand, Xi and Putin both believe that the West is in decline; on the other hand, China has significant trading relations with Ukraine and doesn’t want to lose international status if Putin’s invasion fails.

Oil prices and energy markets

David Frum, The Coming Energy Shock. Both NATO sanctions and Russian retaliation will destabilize the markets for gasoline and natural gas in the near- and medium-term. Buckle up.

Signs of Russian popular discontent with Putin’s invasion

Yana Pashaeva, “Shame for the Insane Tyrant”: How liberal Russians are reacting to Putin’s War with Ukraine. Anti-war sentiment was expressed through social media in Russia.

Anton Troianovski, Many Russians feel a deep unease over going to war. Ordinary Russians dismissed, for months, warnings of an invasion into Ukraine as media hype. They accepted official denials of Putin’s war plans and so were unprepared for its actuality. There doesn’t seem to be a public appetite for this conflict.

America’s Fifth Column

Will Saletan, Father Carlson. Father Charles Coughlin, an American radio host in the 1930s, praised Hitler and promoted conspiracy theories blaming the Jews for European tensions. Tucker Carlson is Father Coughlin’s successor.

Tucker Carlson is on Russia’s side.

Tim Miller, Trump’s Despicable, Disgraceful, and un-American Response to Putin’s Evil.

Anytime there is conflict abroad the American punditocracy moves immediately to ensure the world is aware that our narcissism knows no bounds or borders.

What we can do (on our own) to help the situation

Meditate. Davidji, Journey toward Peace.

Donate. Ukraine Humanitarian Fund/UN Crisis Relief

International Rescue Committee

United Help Ukraine

Communicate. Call US politicians to express support for Russian sanctions and other initiatives to aid Ukraine. White House comment line: 202-456-1111. Call your repesentatives: Find your representatives contact info website.

Cultivate. Plant a garden on your balcony or in your backyard. Food prices will skyrocket, partly from the disruptions of international markets (thanks, Putin!) but mostly because of climate change.

Keep scrolling down to reach the comments, share, and like buttons.